WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE HOUSING MARKET IN 2023

What To Expect From the Housing Market in 2023

What To Expect from the Housing Market in 2023 | MyKCM

The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it's put the market into a reset position.

As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) made moves this year to try to lower inflation, mortgage rates more than doubled – something that’s never happened before in a calendar year. This had a cascading impact on buyer activity, the balance between supply and demand, and ultimately home prices. And as all those things changed, some buyers and sellers put their plans on hold and decided to wait until the market felt a bit more predictable.

But what does that mean for next year? What everyone really wants is more stability in the market in 2023. For that to happen we’ll need to see the Fed bring inflation down even more and keep it there. Here’s what housing market experts say we can expect next year.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates in 2023?

Moving forward, experts agree it’s still going to be all about inflation. If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be as well. But if inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will likely respond. While there may be early signs inflation is easing as we round out this year, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Inflation is still something to watch in 2023.

Right now, experts are factoring all of this into their mortgage rate forecasts for next year. And if we average those forecasts together, experts say we can expect rates to stabilize a bit more in 2023. Whether that’s between 5.5% and 6.5%, it’s hard for experts to say exactly where they’ll land. But based on the average of their projections, a more predictable rate is likely ahead (see chart below):

What To Expect from the Housing Market in 2023 | MyKCM

That means, we’ll start the year out about where we are right now. But we could see rates tick down if inflation continues to drop. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrateexplains:

“. . . mortgage rates could pull back meaningfully next year if inflation pressures ease.

In the meantime, expect some volatility as rates will likely fluctuate in the weeks ahead. If we see inflation come back under control, that would be good news for the housing market.

What Will Happen to Home Prices Next Year?

Homes prices will always be defined by supply and demand. The more buyers and fewer homes there are on the market, the more home prices will rise. And that’s exactly what we saw during the pandemic.

But this year, things changed. We’ve seen home prices moderate and housing supply grow as buyer demand pulled back due to higher mortgage rates. The level of moderation has varied by local area – with the biggest changes happening in overheated markets. But do experts think that will continue?

The graph below shows the latest home price forecasts for 2023. As the different colored bars indicate, some experts are saying home prices will appreciate next year, and others are saying home prices will come down. But again, if we take the average of all the forecasts (shown in green), we can get a feel for what 2023 may hold.

What To Expect from the Housing Market in 2023 | MyKCM

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. That means nationally, we’ll likely see relatively flat or neutral appreciation in 2023. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”

Bottom Line

The 2023 housing market is going to be defined by mortgage rates, and rates will be determined by what happens with inflation. The best way to keep a pulse on what experts are projecting for next year is to lean on a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect.

Thinking About Remodeling? Here’s some tips.
If you’ve made the decision to remodel your home before selling it, you should do some research to find the right contracting company.
Digital Photography
When selling your home, it’s important to upload high-quality images that really show it off to potential buyers.
How to Recognize a Qualified Buyer
When you’re selling your home, it’s exciting to get an offer! But unless your potential buyer has the resources to qualify for a mortgage, you might not really have a sale.
Questions to Ask Yourself When Considering Selling
If you’re thinking about selling your home and moving to a new location but you aren’t entirely sure about the idea, here are some helpful questions to ask when making up your mind.
Tips to Make the Sale Process Faster
If you’re thinking about listing your home on the market, here are some tips to make the sale process faster and easier long term.
Home Showing Checklist
If you’re selling your home and are getting ready for a home showing, here are some tips that will increase your chances of success.
How To Add Curb Appeal
Want to add some curb appeal to your home before listing it on the market? Here are some tips that will help!
How To Attract More Buyers
Attracting buyers to your home on the market is an important task in order to have it sell quickly. Here are some tips on how to convince buyers to make an offer on your home!
What to Know About the Appraisal Process
After accepting a contract for the sale of your home, the buyer’s lender will send an appraiser to make sure the purchase price is in line with the property’s value.

Post a Comment